The crude tanker market has spent April detaching itself, slowly and then more decisively, from the geopolitical narrative that dominated March. Spot earnings on the TD3C benchmark — Middle East to China, 270,000 deadweight — closed Wednesday at $58,400 a day. Three weeks ago, with Hormuz blockade headlines daily, the same number was $61,100. The decline of $2,700 hardly justifies the word "softer". What it does justify is a careful look at the fundamentals.

The fleet figures are the cleanest place to begin. The global VLCC fleet stands at approximately 905 vessels. Of these, ninety-eight are over twenty years old — a vintage that, in normal markets, would be in active conversation with demolition yards. In the present market, twenty of those ninety-eight are idle in the so-called "shadow fleet" servicing Russian and Iranian crude. The remainder are trading, but at sharply reduced utilisation.

The replacement gap

The orderbook tells the other half of the story. Eighty-six VLCCs are presently on order — a number which, against a 905-vessel fleet, equates to 9.5 per cent. By historic standards this is unremarkable. The Newbuilding desk reports that Korean yards have effectively closed their books for 2028 delivery, which means the headline orderbook number is misleading: most of those eighty-six are 2029 stock. The unremarkable orderbook combined with the ageing trading fleet creates what brokers are now calling, with some understatement, "the replacement gap".

Approximately twenty-eight VLCCs will deliver in 2026. Roughly twenty-five vessels will pass twenty-five years of age in the same period. Net fleet growth at the modern end is therefore close to zero. With trade volumes flat to slightly up, the implication for utilisation — and therefore for spot rates — is direct.

i. Tanker rates this week

Spot earnings, USD per day, week-on-week change.

Benchmark

Latest

Δ wow

VLCCTD3C — AG / China

58,400

-2.1%

SuezmaxTD20 — WAF / UKC

42,100

+3.4%

AframaxTD7 — N Sea / UKC

36,800

+1.2%

LR2TC1 — AG / Japan

38,200

+5.8%

MRTC2 — UKC / USAC

24,500

flat

Sources — Affinity Research; Baltic Exchange.

ii. TD3C earnings, six-month

Worldscale-derived earnings, USD per day, weekly average.

TD3C · Nov 25 — Apr 26

80k60k40k20k

NovDecJanFebMarApr

Source — Baltic Exchange.

The orderbook isn’t the problem. The age curve is. Senior tanker broker, Athens

Product tankers diverge

The clean side of the market is telling a different story. LR2 earnings on the AG–Japan route are firm — up close to six per cent week-on-week — driven by sustained jet fuel demand and continuing arbitrage out of the Middle East. MR earnings, by contrast, are flat. The transatlantic gasoline trade has not recovered the lift it lost in early March.

The reasonable interpretation is that the strength in clean is real but narrow: long-haul molecules, particularly distillates moving east-to-west and west-to-east on LR1s and LR2s, are pulling rates higher. Short-haul triangulation in the Atlantic basin remains structurally weaker.

For most of the first quarter, the dry bulk market gave the impression of an asset class in waiting. Capesize earnings averaged $14,300 a day in February, a level at which roughly half the fleet operates below cash break-even. March recovered to $19,800. April, with one week to run, is averaging $26,100 — and the past three trading days have all printed above $30,000.

The proximate cause is straightforward: iron ore. Brazilian exports out of Tubarão and Ponta da Madeira have run at 24.8 million tonnes in the first three weeks of April, against 21.4 million in the same period of 2025. The increase, attributed in part to the resolution of permitting disputes at Vale's Northern System, is a 16 per cent year-on-year jump. Tonne-mile demand on the long-haul Brazil–China route has responded accordingly.

The structural piece

The cyclical story is real. The structural story is more interesting and, in our view, more durable. The Capesize orderbook stands at 8.4 per cent of the fleet — a multi-decade low. Effective supply growth in the segment is running at approximately 1.6 per cent per annum on a net basis. Demand growth, even at modest assumptions, is comfortably above this.

i. Dry bulk rates this week

Time-charter equivalent earnings, USD per day.

Benchmark

Latest

Δ wow

Capesize180,000 dwt

32,400

+18.2%

Panamax82,000 dwt

14,800

+4.1%

Supramax58,000 dwt

13,200

+2.3%

Handysize38,000 dwt

11,500

flat

Sources — Affinity Research; Baltic Exchange.

ii. Capesize spot earnings, twelve months

BCI 5TC, USD per day, weekly average. Note the April inflexion.

BCI 5TC · May 25 — Apr 26

40k30k20k10k

MayJulSepNovJanApr

Source — Baltic Exchange.

A 1.6 per cent supply growth rate is doing a lot of work in this market. Affinity Research

The smaller sizes

The picture in the geared and Panamax segments is less dramatic but consistent in direction. Atlantic Panamax earnings have firmed on the back of grain export season out of South America — Brazilian soybean shipments through Santos are running ahead of last year — and Pacific business has held steady on Indonesian coal moving to India.

The lagging segment is Handysize, where the rate of change is essentially flat. Geared markets typically follow the larger sizes with a delay of three to six weeks. If the Cape strength persists, Handysize earnings should reasonably be expected to firm into May.

February’s reshuffling of the container shipping alliances was the most significant structural change to liner shipping since the 2017 mergers. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd departed the 2M and THE alliances respectively to form Gemini, a hub-and-spoke network that promised, ambitiously, to deliver ninety per cent on-time performance. ONE, Yang Ming and HMM regrouped as Premier. MSC went standalone. CMA CGM remained with the slimmed-down Ocean Alliance.

The early data is now in, and the verdict is more interesting than the trade press has suggested. Schedule reliability on the Asia–Europe trade has risen from 53 per cent in February to 71 per cent in April. The improvement is real, broadly distributed, and visible in shippers’ own data.

The pricing consequence

Improved reliability has, predictably, removed urgency from the spot market. The Shanghai-Rotterdam spot rate has fallen from $2,840 per FEU at the start of March to $2,180 today. The decline is consistent with capacity that is no longer being absorbed by inefficiency. It is also consistent with an industry whose capacity discipline is, once again, being tested.

i. Container freight indices

Spot rates, USD per FEU, week-on-week change.

Benchmark

Latest

Δ wow

Shanghai – RotterdamAsia / Europe

2,180

-3.2%

Shanghai – Los AngelesTrans-Pacific

1,820

-1.8%

Shanghai – New YorkTrans-Pac east coast

2,650

-2.4%

SCFI compositeIndex, base 1000

1,485

-2.1%

Sources — Shanghai Shipping Exchange; Affinity Research.

ii. Asia–Europe spot, six months

Shanghai–Rotterdam, USD per FEU, weekly.

SHA-RTM · Nov 25 — Apr 26

3.5k3.0k2.5k2.0k

NovDecJanFebMarApr

Source — Shanghai Shipping Exchange.

Capacity, again

The container orderbook, at 18.4 per cent of the fleet, is the largest among the major shipping segments. Approximately 2.1 million TEU is scheduled for delivery in 2026. Even with continued slow steaming and an aggressive demolition pace at the older end, net fleet growth will exceed five per cent. Demand growth, on the most generous reading, is two to three.

The implication, repeated by every research desk in the sector, is that 2026 freight rates should compress through the year. The alliance reshuffle has, somewhat counter-intuitively, accelerated the timeline.

QatarEnergy’s confirmation on Tuesday of twelve additional QC-Max orders at Hudong-Zhonghua brings the cumulative QatarEnergy programme to seventy-six vessels. The orders, valued at approximately $3.5 billion, will deliver between Q4 2028 and Q2 2030. They are, in shipyard terms, the single largest single-buyer commitment of the year.

The QC-Max design — 271,000 cubic metres of capacity, MEGI propulsion with shaft generators, designed for direct service from Ras Laffan to North Asian receiving terminals — represents the largest LNG carrier class ever built. Each vessel will move approximately 70 per cent more cargo per voyage than a standard 174,000 cbm carrier. The Newbuilding desk has reported separately on the slot pressure these orders are now putting on Korean and Chinese yards.

The market consequence

For the existing LNGC fleet, the implication is mixed. The 174,000 cbm sector — the workhorse of the global trade — will face increasing competitive pressure on the Qatar–Asia route once the QC-Max vessels enter service. But the broader LNG demand picture remains supportive: floating storage activity is running at the upper end of the historical range, and US Gulf coast loadings are projected to grow by 28 per cent in 2026.

i. The QatarEnergy programme

Cumulative position as of this week.

76vessels

Total orders confirmed

$24bn

Cumulative contract value

12/ 76

QC-Max design

Q2’30

Final delivery

ii. LNGC spot rates

Atlantic and Pacific spot, USD per day.

Benchmark

Latest

Δ wow

174k cbm — TFDEAtlantic basin

88,000

+4.2%

174k cbm — MEGIAtlantic basin

102,500

+3.8%

160k cbm — steamPacific basin

52,000

flat

VLGCBLPG1 — AG / Japan

46,200

+1.4%

Sources — Affinity Research; Spark Commodities.

Seventy-six vessels is no longer a programme. It is a fleet. LNG broker, London

LPG: holding pattern

The VLGC market has been comparatively quiet. BLPG1 earnings have firmed marginally on the back of strong propane exports out of the US Gulf, but the rate environment is unremarkable by recent standards. The order book is moderate — 14 per cent of the fleet — and demand growth is steady. We expect VLGC earnings to remain in the $40,000 to $55,000 band through Q2.

The second quarter of 2026 has produced what brokers in London and Singapore are calling a "quiet shock". Without any of the front-page LNG carrier orders that defined 2022, or the container rush of 2021, the world’s three largest shipbuilders have effectively closed their books for delivery in 2028. The mechanism has been deceptively simple: a steady rhythm of small and medium-sized orders, repeated every week for three months, until the slots ran out.

The numbers, supplied by Clarksons and cross-checked against three independent broking houses, are striking. Of the available capacity at HD Hyundai Heavy, Samsung Heavy and Hanwha Ocean for delivery in the second quarter of 2028, eighty-seven per cent has now been formally committed. The remaining thirteen per cent is, in practice, held against existing options or earmarked for the LNG carrier programme that Qatar’s gas authority confirmed this week.

i. The week in prices

Newbuild contract prices by segment, USD millions, week-on-week change.

Benchmark

Latest

Δ wow

VLCC300,000 dwt · Korean yard

138.5

+1.5%

Suezmax158,000 dwt · Korean yard

89.0

+0.6%

LR2 / Aframax115,000 dwt · Korean yard

74.0

+0.7%

MR2 product tanker50,000 dwt · Korean yard

51.5

flat

Capesize bulker180,000 dwt · Chinese yard

78.5

-0.3%

LNGC174,000 cbm · MEGI / X-DF

266.0

+2.1%

Sources — Affinity Research; Clarksons Research; broker indications.

ii. Twelve years of newbuilding prices

Clarksons Newbuild Price Index, all vessels, monthly. The 2008 nominal peak is now exceeded.

Newbuild Index · 2014 — 2026

200170140110

’14’16’18’20’22’24’26

Source — Clarksons Research; latest reading 192.

We have not seen pricing this firm since the boom of 2008. Yard director, quoted at SMM Hamburg

The orders this week

The week’s tally — twenty-eight confirmed orders worth approximately $4.2 billion — is consistent with the pace of the past quarter. What has changed is the composition. A year ago, Chinese yards captured roughly sixty per cent of new orders by tonnage. This week the figure is closer to forty-five per cent, with the displacement going almost entirely to Korea. As the Tankers desk argues elsewhere in this issue, the consequences of that displacement now flow directly into the spot market through the age curve.

iii. Notable orders this week

Five orders worth flagging, in order of contract value.

Four VLCCs (plus two options)

Crude · 300k dwt

Ordered at HD Hyundai Heavy by an undisclosed Far Eastern owner. Dual-fuel LNG, shaft generator, EEDI Phase 3. Reported price $138.5m apiece — the top of the current range.

Yard HD Hyundai HeavyDelivery 2028Value ~$555m

Three LNG carriers

LNG · 174k cbm

Ordered at Hanwha Ocean by an undisclosed Greek owner. Long-term charter to a major oil reportedly secured. Order price approximately $266m per vessel.

Yard Hanwha OceanDelivery 2028Value ~$798m

Six MR2 product tankers

Reported · Methanol DF

Reportedly at HD Hyundai Mipo for a combined Norwegian / Greek consortium. Dual-fuel methanol with ammonia readiness; delivery 2028–2029.

Yard HD Hyundai MipoDelivery 2028–29Value ~$309m

Sources — Affinity Research; Clarksons Research; broker channels.

iv. The week in numbers

Four figures that frame the picture.

28vessels

Ordered this week

$4.2bn

Total contract value

38months

Avg lead time to delivery

87%

Korean Q2 ’28 slots booked

For owners contemplating new orders, the calculation is becoming uncomfortable. The choice is between paying an effective premium of four to six per cent to secure 2029 delivery now, or waiting for what might be a softer second half of 2026. Korean yards, who have been here before, are betting that owners will pay.

After three weeks of intense activity, the second-hand market took a breath this week. The reported tally of nineteen transactions, down from forty-two the prior week, is the lowest since the holiday season. Brokers attribute the slowdown to a combination of asset-price expectations — sellers are holding firm, buyers are waiting for clarity on Q2 charter rates — and the simple rhythm of a market that has been running hot.

The transactions that did clear are concentrated at the modern end. Of the nineteen, twelve are post-2015 built; only two are over fifteen years old. The age compression of the active second-hand market is, increasingly, a defining feature of 2026.

Demolition: a different story

The demolition market, by contrast, has had its busiest week since November. Eleven vessels were reportedly committed to recycling yards in the Indian subcontinent, against a 2026 weekly average of 4.2. The mix is interesting: seven of the eleven are containers, predominantly older Panamax tonnage now displaced by post-2018 Neopanamax newbuilds.

i. Five-year-old asset values

Indicative second-hand prices, USD millions, week-on-week change.

Benchmark

Latest

Δ wow

VLCC — 5yr300k dwt

108.0

+0.5%

Suezmax — 5yr158k dwt

78.5

flat

Capesize — 5yr180k dwt

64.0

+1.6%

Panamax bulker — 5yr82k dwt

32.5

+0.6%

MR2 — 5yr50k dwt

42.0

flat

Demolition — tankerUSD / ldt, India

545

+2.8%

Sources — Affinity Research; broker channels; GMS.

ii. Notable transactions

Three reported deals worth highlighting.

M/V Crystal Heritage (2017, 158k dwt)

Suezmax

Reported sale to undisclosed Greek buyers at $79m. Built at Hyundai Heavy, scrubber fitted, special survey passed Q4 2025. Confirms firm pricing at the modern Suezmax end.

Built 2017Yard Hyundai HeavyPrice $79.0m

M/V Atlantic Star (2008, 180k dwt)

Capesize

Sold to Bangladeshi recyclers at $565 per ldt. The vessel’s 18-year service life is unremarkable; the demolition price represents a six-month high.

Built 2008Buyer RecyclingPrice $565 / ldt

Sources — Affinity Research; broker channels.

Outlook

For the remainder of Q2, the second-hand market is likely to remain selectively active rather than broadly busy. The combination of newbuild scarcity and firm charter rates supports modern asset values; the absence of distressed sellers limits the volume of opportunistic transactions.

The demolition picture should sustain itself. Container demolition pricing, in particular, has further to firm: Asian recyclers are competing aggressively for tonnage, and the Indian subcontinent’s steel demand remains supportive.